Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology

Background: HIV testing is the entry point into the diagnosis, treatment and viral suppression cascade, yet in many low and middle income countries the household surveys used to monitor testing coverage are not powered for estimation below the regional level. We produced calibrated district level estimates of HIV testing uptake among women in Ghana across three Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) rounds and examined the spatial and temporal structure of the heterogeneity that remained once measured covariates were accounted for. Methods: We pooled individual recode and geo referenced cluster data from the 2008, 2014 and 2022 Ghana DHS (n = 4,769, 9,391 and 15,014 women respectively; outcome: ever tested for HIV, variable v781), aggregated to 261 level two administrative districts by survey round, and fitted a Bayesian hierarchical binomial model that combined a BYM2 conditional autoregressive spatial term, a first order random walk (RW1) temporal term, and three standardised covariates: WorldPop population density derived from a machine learning dasymetric algorithm, Malaria Atlas Project travel time to the nearest city, and cluster urban proportion, each extracted within buffers around cluster coordinates that matched the DHS displacement protocol. Inference used integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) implemented through R-INLA (Lindgren and Rue, 2015). Residual spatial structure was assessed with global and local Moran's I. Results: National crude testing prevalence rose from 20.7% in 2008 to 46.7% in 2014 and 53.8% in 2022. District sample sizes were small and unevenly distributed (2008 median n = 20 women per district; 91.8% of districts had fewer than 50), which is why model based smoothing rather than direct estimation was required. Urban cluster proportion was independently associated with higher testing odds (odds ratio [OR] 1.10, 95% credible interval [CrI] 1.04 to 1.16 per one standard deviation increase) and travel time to the nearest city with lower odds (OR 0.90, 95% CrI 0.84 to 0.96); population density showed no independent association once these two variables were included (OR 0.95, 95% CrI 0.89 to 1.02). The spatial mixing parameter of the BYM2 term (phi = 0.716, 95% CrI 0.498 to 0.887) indicated that around seven tenths of spatially attributable variance was structured rather than idiosyncratic. Global Moran's I on the fitted spatial effect surface was 0.616 (p = 6.6 x 10 to the power minus 60), and local indicators of spatial association identified a contiguous low uptake cluster across the northern regions together with three compact high uptake clusters in the south central corridor. Conclusions: Combining machine learning derived geospatial covariates with an explicit spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchy exposes a persistent north to south gradient in HIV testing uptake that measured accessibility and urbanicity do not fully explain and identifies specific district clusters as priorities for targeted testing scale up.

Alpha-gal syndrome (AGS) is a tick bite-associated allergic condition induced by the lone star tick (Amblyomma americanum). Illinois had no confirmed AGS case data as of January 2026, when mandatory reporting began under the state's TICK Act, leaving practitioners without data to guide screening or resource allocation. We constructed a county-level proxy risk score using a Bayesian conditional autoregressive spatial model applied to three Illinois surveillance sources from 2019-2022: tick abundance, ehrlichiosis cases, and tick establishment status, all linked by a shared vector. Ehrlichiosis was modeled as a population-adjusted rate, ticks as a relative-intensity index, and establishment status as a fixed ecological component. The combined risk score identified a high-risk cluster in far southern Illinois that remained stable across alternative weighting scenarios. This approach is transferable to jurisdictions lacking direct AGS surveillance and offers a starting point for clinician education pending validation against confirmed case data.

Many urban health outcomes are shaped by environmental stressors that occur together rather than in isolation, yet methods for measuring such co-occurrence at the neighbourhood scale remain underdeveloped. We developed a multi-metric framework for joint co-exposure assessment and applied it to characterise the joint spatial distribution of summer surface heat and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) across 42,304 census tracts in 48 large US metropolitan areas during summers 2015 to 2020, covering approximately 174.6 million residents. The framework combines a composite co-exposure index, a joint exceedance indicator, a conditional exceedance ratio that compares observed joint occurrence to within-group statistical independence, and an upper tail dependence parameter estimated using both the non-parametric Caperaa-Fougeres-Genest estimator and a Gumbel copula, with bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) confidence intervals obtained from a 5,000-replicate metropolitan-area block bootstrap. Among residents of predominantly Black tracts, 13.21% lived in neighbourhoods that simultaneously exceeded the within-metropolitan-area 80th percentile for both heat and PM2.5, compared with 3.33% of residents of predominantly White tracts; the corresponding heat-only and PM2.5-only ratios were 2.88 and 2.48. Residents of Home Owners Loan Corporation grade D tracts had 3.97 times the odds (95% confidence interval 2.79 to 5.66) of joint hotspot residence compared with grade A residents after adjustment for contemporary tract racial composition, poverty, renter-occupancy, and pre-1960 housing. The within-group conditional exceedance ratio at the 80th percentile was 2.29 in predominantly White tracts (95% BCa CI 1.81 to 2.78), 1.27 in predominantly Black tracts (0.71 to 1.56), and 1.13 in predominantly Hispanic tracts (0.70 to 1.41); the White interval excluded one while the Black and Hispanic intervals included one, which we interpret as power-limited given fewer contributing CBSAs. Magnitudes attenuated under near-surface air temperature surfaces but the direction and statistical significance of the primary findings were preserved. The framework is portable to other compound-exposure questions and supports cumulative-impact assessment.

Urban air pollution remains a significant public health concern, contributing to premature deaths and adverse health outcomes. However, there is little causal research evaluating the effectiveness of policies designed to improve air quality. This study assesses the impact of all three stages of London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) on air pollution, via PM2.5 levels, and respiratory health, via prescription records for bronchodilator and respiratory corticosteroid medications. Analyses are at general practice level, using a generalised synthetic control method to estimate causal impacts. Stage 1 was associated with a statistically significant but negligible 0.77% reduction in PM2.5 levels, with no corresponding change in prescribing. Stage 2 produced a paradoxical 2.69% increase in PM2.5, alongside a 4.44% decrease in inhaled corticosteroid quantity but a 12.51% increase in average daily quantity (ADQ) usage, suggesting a worsening of disease severity among existing patients. Stage 3 yielded a 2.69% PM2.5 reduction and a modest 2.18% decrease in bronchodilator ADQ usage. Spillover effects beyond the ULEZ boundary were statistically significant, but negligible. We find overall that the ULEZ had minimal effects on both air quality and respiratory prescribing across all three stages. These findings provide new insights into the effectiveness of ULEZ policies in reducing air pollution and its associated health impacts, suggesting the zone's effects are considerably smaller than previously reported, and that integration with broader policy measures may be necessary to achieve meaningful public health gains.

Objective: Over the past decades, US policies intended to reduce air pollution emissions from electric generating units (EGUs), mobile sources (e.g., cars and trucks), and port activities have been implemented to improve air quality. This study aimed to estimate and compare counterfactual air pollution concentrations (i.e., concentrations that would have occurred without these policies) to observed concentrations, and then evaluate the health impacts of such policies in New York City, Los Angeles, and Atlanta from 2005 to 2019. Materials and Methods: We obtained data on respiratory emergency department (ED) visits and cardiovascular disease ED visits that result in hospitalizations for the three cities from 2005-2019. Daily concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), criteria gases [carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3)], and 1-in-3-day measured concentrations of PM2.5 components and PM sources estimated using positive matrix factorization were acquired from six monitoring sites in the three cities. To estimate health impacts of selected EGU, mobile, and port policies we estimated: 1) counterfactual daily pollutant concentrations at each of the 6 city-sites; 2) associations between daily pollutant concentrations and rates of cardiorespiratory visits using city-site specific multi-pollutant Poisson models; and 3) the percent of cardiorespiratory visits prevented by the implementation of the selected policies, through applying observed and counterfactual concentrations to the fitted health models. Results: Air quality policies were estimated to reduce ambient pollutant concentrations across the three cities, with median PM2.5 reductions of 27%-62% due to all policies combined during 2005-2019. Changes in criteria-pollutant concentrations associated with the selected policies were estimated to avert 7.1% (95% UI: 5.4%, 8.9%) of respiratory visits in New York City, 2.4% (95% UI: 1.4%, 3.4%) in Los Angeles, and 4.5% (95% UI: 0.8%, 8.2%) in Atlanta. In addition, 2.6% (95% UI: 0.9%, 4.2%) and 1.2% (95% UI: 0.3%, 2.1%) of cardiovascular visits were averted in New York City and Los Angeles, while the estimate in Atlanta did not indicate cardiovascular visits averted. Conclusion: The selected EGU, mobile-source, and port policies evaluated during 2005-2019 were estimated to reduce ambient pollutant concentrations and avert respiratory visits in all three cities and cardiovascular visits in New York City and Los Angeles.

Introduction: Raised blood pressure is an important cardiovascular risk factor in Cambodia; however, national averages may obscure substantial local geographic heterogeneity. We assessed the spatial distribution of raised blood pressure and its demographic, metabolic, behavioural, built-environment, and environmental correlates using the 2023 Cambodia STEPwise approach to noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factor surveillance (STEPS) survey. Methods: We analysed 289 georeferenced primary sampling units (PSUs) from the 2023 Cambodia STEPS Survey. PSU-level case counts and numbers of adults with valid blood pressure data were modelled using a frequentist binomial generalised additive model with a two-dimensional Gaussian-process smooth. An explanatory model included selected PSU-level and contextual covariates; a separate mapping model used spatially continuous predictors to generate predictions on a 5-km grid. Design-based national and residence-specific prevalence estimates were calculated separately using the survey design and Step-2 weights. Results: Among 4,225 adults with valid blood pressure data, unweighted prevalence of raised blood pressure was 28.6%, compared with 18.8% after Step-2 weighting; weighted prevalence was 17.5% in rural areas and 21.7% in urban/suburban areas. Mean observed unweighted PSU-level prevalence was 29.0%. In the adjusted spatial explanatory model, the proportion aged 60-69 years ({beta}=1.969, SE=0.327; p<0.001) and overweight/obesity prevalence ({beta}=0.996, SE=0.265; p<0.001) were positive ecological correlates. The spatial model had lower Akaike information criterion and residual deviance than its non-spatial counterpart, although Bayesian information criterion was higher. Prediction uncertainty was greater in some sparsely sampled areas. Conclusions: Raised blood pressure showed significant geographic heterogeneity across Cambodia. Older age composition and overweight/obesity prevalence were positive PSU-level correlates, not individual-level causal effects. Predicted prevalence should be interpreted alongside uncertainty and should complement, rather than replace, design-based STEPS prevalence estimates for geographically informed NCD planning.

Abstract: Background: Children born very preterm (VPT) are at elevated risk for adverse neurobehavioral outcomes and are vulnerable to environmental exposures. We used untargeted metabolomics analysis to identify environmentally relevant metabolites associated with childhood behavioral problems and to characterize related endogenous metabolic pathways. Methods: We studied 226 children born <30 weeks gestation in a multi-site cohort study. Urine collected at age 4 was profiled using untargeted ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry (UHPLC-HRMS). Associations between 30 exogenous environmental metabolites and behavioral problems score at age 4 were evaluated cross-sectionally using multivariable linear regression, followed by metabolome-wide association and pathway enrichment analyses. Results: Three exogenous metabolites were nominally associated with child behavior problems. Specifically, 2-(Acetylamino)-3-( henylthiol)propanoic acid was positively associated with overall ({beta}=1.42, p=0.006), externalizing ({beta}=1.50, p=0.006), and internalizing ({beta}=1.34, p=0.021) behavior problems. Diethofencarb was positively associated with overall ({beta}=0.34, p=0.018) and externalizing ({beta}=0.39, p=0.010) behavior problems, while protocatechuic acid was inversely associated with internalizing problems ({beta}=-0.68, p=0.027). No associations remained significant after false discovery rate (FDR) correction. Nevertheless, these metabolites were associated with 151, 131, and 530 endogenous metabolic features, respectively, at FDR<0.05, highlighting perturbations in lipid metabolism, mitochondrial energetics, inflammatory signaling, amino acid metabolism, and neuroactive pathways. Conclusions: Environmental metabolites associated with behavior problems were linked to broad endogenous metabolic differences relevant to neurodevelopment. These findings highlight potentially modifiable environmental influences, including exposures related to combustion-derived pollutants, pesticides, and dietary sources, that may contribute to behavioral vulnerability among children born very preterm

Background: Previous studies indicated that regional fluctuations in COVID-19 impact were associated with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors early in the pandemic. It is unclear whether factors associated with regional COVID-19 mortality and SARS-CoV-2 infections changed over the course of the pandemic. Methods: We evaluated the association of ecological factors with municipality-specific COVID-19 mortality in the national population of Austria between January 2020 and June 2023. Analyses were conducted separately per calendar year and pooled across years via random-effects meta-analysis. Outcomes were analysed using univariable and multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression, including annually averaged environmental exposome exposure (including air pollution and UV radiation), socioeconomic, demographic and infection dissemination predictors with significance threshold set to p<0.005. Secondary analysis modelled SARS-CoV-2 infections using of negative-binomial model (NB). Two additional approaches for smaller predictor set selection were applied as sensitivity analyses. Results: Within the entire observation period 18,430 COVID-19 deaths were reported. In univariable analyses (pooled RR (99.5% CI)), COVID-19 mortality was significantly associated with the proportion of commuters (0.79 (0.73-0.86)), residents aged 75-84 (1.18 (1.01-1.37)) and [&ge;]85 years (1.29 (1.04-1.60)), residents with at most compulsory education (1.15 (1.02-1.29)), employed residents aged 15-64 (0.89 (0.85-0.93)), and homeowners (0.91 (0.83-0.99)), as well as with precipitation (0.94 (0.89-0.99)) and the average time with a mean temperature of 5-15 C (0.95 (0.90-0.99)). In multivariable analyses the share of population aged 85 or older (1.30 (1.09-1.54)) and home ownership (0.92 (0.87-0.98)) were independently significant. Mortality predictor estimates were relatively stable across pandemic years. Across 5,963,882 documented SARS-CoV-2 infections share of employed in 15- to 64-year-olds (1.01 (1.01-1.02)), part-time employment rate (1.01 (1.00-1.02)) and district level nursing care allowance recipiency (0.97 (0.95-0.98)) were associated with detected infections. Overnight stays, population 85 or older, income, compulsory education or less and air pollution all had multiple significant estimates with opposite directionality, leading to non-significant overall associations. Sensitivity analyses outcomes mirrored main analyses outcomes. Conclusions: Throughout the pandemic in Austria, demographic and socioeconomic factors were associated with COVID-19 mortality and infections, but many associations, especially for infections, were unstable over time. These findings underscore the importance of structural vulnerabilities in epidemic impact.

Background: Non-optimal air temperature increases the risk of preterm birth, but how temperature-related risks may translate into future population burden remains uncertain. We aimed to estimate the association between temperature and preterm birth in Sweden and assess how preterm birth burden may change under plausible future temperature conditions. Methods: We conducted a nationwide population-based cohort study of singleton births in Sweden from 1973 to 2018. Weekly mean temperature was assigned at the parish level according to maternal residence. Cox proportional hazards models with a distributed lag nonlinear model were used to estimate nonlinear and delayed associations between temperature and preterm birth. The estimated exposure response relationship and baseline hazards were then incorporated into an individual-based microsimulation of gestational progression under projected temperatures for 2025 to 2055. Future projections were examined across multiple climate models under SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Outcomes included the annual number and cumulative incidence of preterm births and the temperature-attributable fraction. Results: Among 4,338,825 singleton births, 211,397 (4.9%) were preterm. Temperature preterm birth associations were modest overall. The clearest increase in hazard was observed following exposure to very low temperatures, particularly -10C at short lags. Higher temperatures showed no clear increase in risk. From 2025 to 2055, the annual cumulative incidence of preterm birth and the temperature-attributable fraction was expected to remain broadly stable, with limited differences between emissions scenarios. In contrast, the absolute number of preterm births was expected to over the projection period, primarily reflecting increases in the projected number of pregnancies rather than substantial changes in temperature-associated risk. Conclusions: Very low temperatures were associated with a modest short-term increase in preterm birth risk in Sweden, hot temperatures showed little evidence of increased risk. Applying these associations to future climate conditions suggested limited changes in preterm birth incidence or the proportion attributable to temperature through 2055. However, the absolute burden of preterm birth may increase as the population at risk grows. This highlights the importance of considering demographic change alongside climate projections when assessing future maternal and neonatal health burden.

Abstract Background Air pollution contributes substantially to morbidity and mortality in low-income countries, where reliance on solid fuels leads to high levels of household exposure. Colonisation of the upper respiratory tract by Streptococcus pneumoniae is a prerequisite for pneumococcal disease, and inhaled air pollutants may influence colonisation through impaired mucociliary clearance. Therefore, we investigated the association between S. pneumoniae colonisation and personal exposure to particulate matter (PM2.5) and carbon monoxide (CO) as well as temperature and relative humidity in older children in The Gambia. Methods We conducted a prospective study of 134 children aged 5-14 years across eight visits in rural Gambia. Personal 24-hour PM2.5, CO, temperature and relative humidity exposures were measured using personal monitors. Concurrently, combined nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs were collected at each visit, and S. pneumoniae colonisation was determined by microbiological culture. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to examine associations between environmental exposures and colonisation. Exposures were additionally decomposed into between-child and within-child components. Models were adjusted for age, season, and household income tertile. Results A total of 554 child visits with paired exposure and microbiological data were analysed. Overall, 24-hour geometric mean PM2.5 and CO were 12.6 {micro}g/m3 (95% CI 12.2-13.1) and 0.16 ppm (95% CI 0.14-0.19) respectively and overall S. pneumoniae colonisation prevalence was 39.7%. In conventional models, PM2.5, CO, temperature, and relative humidity were not significantly associated with S. pneumoniae colonisation after adjustment for confounders. In the within-between decomposition analysis, higher between-child temperature exposure was consistently associated with lower odds of colonisation (mutually adjusted model: OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.56-0.98; p = 0.034). Relative humidity showed an inverse within-child association in crude analysis (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.52-0.93; p = 0.013), which attenuated after adjustment for season and other confounders. No associations were observed for PM2.5 or CO exposures. Conclusion At the exposure levels observed in this cohort of older children, PM2.5 and CO exposures were not independently associated with S. pneumoniae colonisation. The pattern observed for temperature suggests that longer-term temperature conditions may be more relevant to pneumococcal colonisation than short-term exposure variation in this setting.

PurposeTo examine the association between BMI-for-age z-score (BAZ) and BMI status with refractive error prevalence, incidence, subtypes, and quantitative refraction in Vietnamese schoolchildren. MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed body mass index and refractive error data from annual school health checks in three Vietnamese cities, 2022 to 2024. The main analysis set was restricted to children age 6 and older (49,415 examinations, 31,522 children). Refractive error subtypes and quantitative refraction came from a Hanoi autorefractor sub-cohort (13,059 examinations). We used sex-stratified Poisson models with generalized estimating equations, adjusted for age, city, and year, plus linear mixed models for quantitative outcomes. ResultsAny refractive error followed a U shaped curve across BAZ in both sexes, significant in girls (prevalence ratio 1.01 per 1-SD BAZ, p = 0.027) but not boys (p = 0.099). Obesity was associated with higher any refractive error prevalence in girls (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.05, p = 0.017). Astigmatism was associated with BAZ in both sexes (p < 0.001), anisometropia in boys only (p < 0.001), with no association for myopia or hyperopia. Spherical equivalent shifted slightly toward hyperopia, not myopia, with higher BAZ. A supplementary check over 1 to 2 years found no evidence that prior BAZ predicted new refractive error onset (prevalence ratio 1.02, p > 0.6 in both sexes), and the nonlinear pattern did not reappear. ConclusionsAdiposity relates cross-sectionally to refractive error in a nonlinear, sex specific way concentrated in astigmatism and anisometropia rather than myopia, though this did not hold up short term.

Leptospirosis is a globally important environmentally transmitted disease, with approximately one million cases and 60,000 deaths reported annually. In low-income urban communities, inadequate sanitation, drainage and waste management may increase human exposure to contaminated environments. This study investigated the influence of environmental engineering risk factors on Leptospira exposure in four disadvantaged urban communities (favelas) in Salvador, Brazil. A high-precision georeferenced field survey was developed to identify, map and characterise sanitation, stormwater drainage and solid waste infrastructure. Cross-sectional spatial analyses of baseline data were used to assess associations between environmental risk factors and the residential locations of individuals with anti-Leptospira antibodies. Seropositive individuals tended to reside closer to environmental risk factors and at lower relative elevations. Density analyses indicated that seropositive individuals tended to reside closer to inadequate or partially adequate sewerage components than to sewage-contaminated streams or open sewage points. Inadequate streets showed also showed high density peaks, suggesting that exposure may occur through frequent contact with contaminated runoff and standing water. In contrast, open waste dumping sites and vacant lots showed weaker and more diffuse spatial patterns. The findings highlight the importance of infrastructure quality shaping leptospirosis risk within urban informal settlements. The proposed methodology provides a practical approach for high-resolution characterisation of environmental exposure pathways and may support targeted engineering interventions and epidemiological investigations of leptospirosis and other environmentally transmitted diseases.

Background: Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is increasingly used as an adjunct to rehabilitation for young people with cerebral palsy (CP), yet considerable variability exists in clinical response. Individualised electric field modelling provides an opportunity to estimate the distribution of electrical fields generated by the stimulation delivered to the brain and explore potential relationships with functional outcomes. Methods: Structural MRI scans from nineteen participants (10-16 years) from a previously published randomised controlled trial (ISRCTN74235136) investigating the effects of tDCS combined with motor training, underwent participant-specific finite element modelling using SimNIBS. Electric field strength was quantified within anatomically defined motor regions of interest, including the primary motor cortex (M1), dorsal premotor cortex (PMd), supplementary motor area (SMA), and a combined motor network. Global grey matter electric field metrics and stimulation focality were also extracted. Results: Estimated electric field strength differed significantly across motor regions (p<0.001), with PMd receiving significantly greater stimulation than both M1 and SMA. Electric field strength within a control region (primary visual cortex) was significantly lower than within M1 (p<0.001). Despite inter-individual variability in regional and global electric field metrics, no significant associations were observed between estimated electric field strength or focality and changes in function following intervention. Conclusion: Individualised electric field modelling demonstrated that an M1-targeted tDCS montage preferentially stimulated PMd rather than M1 in young people with CP. These findings highlight the importance of subject-specific modelling when characterising current distribution and suggest that variability in electric field strength alone does not explain variability in behavioural response.

Determining the appropriate sample size for desired statistical power is crucial for obtaining reliable research outcomes. While methods exist for multiple types of studies, the method for evaluating power of estimating spillover effects in sociometric network-based studies with non randomized interventions remain inadequately explored. We conducted a simulation study to assess how the design parameters (i.e., number of components, number of nodes, node degree, transitivity, and effect size) affects the statistical power for estimating spillover effects in non randomized, network-based studies. Both simulated networks and a real-world network from Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP) were used in this study. Our simulation results suggests that: (1) power increases with more nodes or a larger effect size, but not necessarily with more components when the number of nodes is fixed; (2) A higher node degree or greater transitivity results in reduced power; (3) Highly unbalanced networks (e.g., most of the nodes are in one component) can drastically reduce power. Furthermore, the power calculated using a closed-form expression developed in this work also shows that power remained the same or even decreases slightly with more components when the number of nodes are fixed, aligning with the simulation findings. All the results were specific to the inverse probability weighting estimator we employed in this study and assumptions it required. An alternative estimator or interference assumption may lead to different results.

Background Inadequate spectacle correction limits the benefit of school vision screening, yet most evidence addresses only whether a child owns glasses rather than whether those glasses work. This study examined the prevalence, predictors, and persistence of inadequate spectacle correction among schoolchildren in three Vietnamese cities. Methods We analyzed annual vision screening records of students from a private school network in Ha Noi, Ho Chi Minh City, and Hai Phong, 2021 to 2024. Inadequate correction was defined as visual acuity below the age-appropriate threshold despite current glasses. A population-averaged modified-Poisson regression with robust standard errors, clustered by child, estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) for city, age, sex, and calendar year. Children linked across consecutive years allowed persistence analysis. Results Among 39,697 spectacle-wearing examinations, 30,936 (77.9%) were inadequately corrected, ranging from 64.8% (95%CI= 63.9, 65.8) in Ho Chi Minh City to 96.7% (96.0, 97.3) in Hai Phong. After adjustment, prevalence was lower in Ho Chi Minh City (aPR= 0.76; 95%CI= 0.75, 0.78; p<0.001) and higher in Hai Phong (aPR= 1.25; 95%CI= 1.23, 1.26; p<0.001) relative to Hanoi, and fell with age (aPR= 0.97 per year; 95%CI= 0.96, 0.97; p<0.001). Among 9,285 linked year pairs from 8,341 children, 85.3% (84.4, 86.1) of initially inadequately corrected children remained so the following year. Conclusions Most spectacle-wearing children in this Vietnamese cohort were inadequately corrected, with wide geographic variation and high persistence. School vision programs need mechanisms to verify correction adequacy after glasses are dispensed, not only to detect refractive error.

In climate-health impact projection studies, projected impacts from multiple general circulation models (GCMs) are commonly aggregated by reporting the mean of GCM-specific impacts as the point estimate alongside a 95% empirical confidence interval (eCI) constructed from the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated pooled distribution of GCM-specific impacts. This study shows that the eCI generally does not yield the nominal coverage probability for the GCM-ensemble mean and constructs an interval aligned with the estimand. In a simulation study, the coverage of the eCI for the GCM-ensemble mean deviates from the nominal level in both directions, whereas the aligned interval yields coverage near 95% across all considered settings. The exact coverages derived analytically under a location-shift model agree with the simulation results. In a reanalysis of a heat-related mortality projection in London, the eCI is consistently wider. The eCI should be distinguished from confidence intervals for the GCM-ensemble mean; rather, the interval may be better described as a simulation-based approximate prediction interval for a GCM-specific impact under the uniformly randomly selected GCM from the considered GCM set.

Community-led urban greening may contribute to neighborhood safety, but its relationship with crime remains uncertain. We examined whether Keep Indianapolis Beautiful Project GreenSpaces in Indianapolis were associated with changes in violence and total crime. We used a matched-pair difference-in-differences design comparing funded sites with matched unfunded applicant sites. The primary analysis included 29 matched pairs with two years of pre- and post-grant follow-up. Monthly Part I violent offenses and total crime within 600-m buffers were modeled using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood. In the first post-grant year, the violent-crime estimate was lower but imprecise (IRR, 0.903; 95% CI, 0.805-1.014). In the second post-grant year, the relative rate was lower (IRR, 0.830; 95% CI, 0.718-0.961). Total crime estimates showed no clear post-grant change. Additional analyses indicated some sensitivity to spatial scale, but no sustained divergence in pre-grant crime patterns. Analyses of short-term crime dependence showed clear month-to-month persistence in violent crime within sites but limited evidence of stable spatial dependence across nearby sites. Therefore, within the two-year post-grant period examined, Project GreenSpaces was associated most consistently with lower relative violent-crime rates in the second year, while no corresponding decrease was observed for total recorded crime. Longer follow-up is needed to determine whether these patterns persist or change as projects mature.

Background: Cardiovascular disease is an important competing cause of death in men with metastatic prostate cancer, and ambient air pollution may increase cardiovascular vulnerability. We evaluated associations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) with all-cause, cardiovascular, and prostate cancer-specific mortality, including joint associations with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Methods: We analyzed 33,384 men from 11 US state registries diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer during 2000-2015 and followed through 2018. Residential PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations at diagnosis were assigned using 1-km exposure models. Multivariable Cox models estimated all-cause mortality, and inverse-probability-weighted Cox models assessed cause-specific mortality. Results: Each interquartile-range increase in PM2.5 was associated with higher cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.07; p-trend=0.008). Cardiovascular mortality was also higher in the fourth and fifth PM2.5 quintiles versus the first (HR 1.18 and 1.21, respectively). Higher NO2 was associated with prostate cancer-specific mortality in the highest quintile (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01-1.13). In joint analyses, ADT-treated men with high versus low PM2.5 exposure had higher cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.05-1.34), without clear evidence of effect modification (p-interaction=0.051). Conclusions: In men with metastatic prostate cancer, higher PM2.5 exposure was associated with cardiovascular mortality, particularly among ADT-treated patients, supporting further study of environmental exposures and systemic therapy in cardio-oncology.

OBJECTIVE To assess associations of ambient UV with cardiovascular and cancer mortality across US Health Service Areas (HSAs), prioritise outcomes by signal and attributable burden, assess racial and ethnic variation, with UK Biobank corroboration. DESIGN Ecological analysis of HSAs using linear regression of crude mortality on ambient UV and social vulnerability, with correction for multiple comparisons. SETTING US HSAs and UK Biobank. DATA SOURCES Publicly available US data and UK Biobank data accessed under Application 82526. PARTICIPANTS 704 808 annual cardiovascular deaths (aged [&ge;]65) and 565 287 annual cancer deaths (aged [&ge;]50) from populations of 52.8 and 115.2 million; UK Biobank analyses included 412 665 individuals. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Cardiovascular, all-cancer, and body-site-specific cancer mortality; regression slope per interquartile-range increase in UV ({beta} UV/IQR), modelled attributable burden for US data, and hazard ratios for the UK Biobank data. RESULTS Higher UV was associated with lower cardiovascular ({beta}UV/IQR -68.3 deaths/100 000; P<0.001) and all-cancer mortality (-43.2; P<0.001), corresponding to 36 043 (5.1%) and 49 789 (8.8%) fewer US deaths annually, respectively. Associations varied by race and ethnicity. Cardiovascular findings were directionally consistent between US and UK datasets. All-cancer mortality and 10 of 18 cancers were inversely associated with UV in the US; UK analyses found inverse associations for all-cancer and two individual body-site-specific cancers. Twelve cancers showed directionally concordant associations across the datasets, of which ten were inverse. Lung cancer showed the strongest inverse association in each dataset. CONCLUSIONS Higher UV was associated with lower cardiovascular and cancer mortality across US HSAs, with modelled attributable burdens exceeding 5%; UK Biobank findings provided partial corroboration. Twelve of 18 site-specific cancers were directionally concordant between datasets. US race-stratified heterogeneity did not follow a skin-colour gradient, suggesting residual confounding.

Background. Refractive error is a leading cause of childhood visual impairment worldwide, yet longitudinal, multi-city data from Vietnam remain scarce, especially for children younger than school age. We aimed to describe the prevalence and secular trends of refractive error in a large urban Vietnamese school health program. Methods. We conducted a retrospective analysis of repeated cross-sectional school health screening data collected from 2021 to 2024 across three major Vietnamese cities (Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and Hai Phong), among children aged 3 to 18 years. The dataset included 141,339 examinations, with a Hanoi sub-cohort of 19,788 examinations that had quantitative autorefractor measurements. We estimated crude prevalence and adjusted prevalence ratios using Poisson regression. Results. The prevalence of any refractive error stayed high throughout the study period, ranging from 53.9% to 57.1% (P for trend < 0.001), and was higher in Hai Phong (68.4%) and Hanoi (61.6%) than Ho Chi Minh City (35.9%), higher in girls than boys (58.5% vs 53.1%), and higher with older age (P < 0.001). In the Hanoi sub-cohort, confirmed myopia prevalence nearly tripled, from 3.7% in 2022 to 11.0% in 2024 (P < 0.001), while hyperopia declined. Conclusions. Refractive error is highly prevalent among urban Vietnamese schoolchildren, and confirmed myopia appears to be rising rapidly at younger ages. These findings support closer surveillance and earlier school-based intervention in Vietnam and similar settings.